Northeast U.S. Temperatures are Decades Ahead of Global Average

From: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Published: January 11, 2017

UMass Amherst climate scientists say Northeast will warm sooner than most of U.S.

AMHERST, Mass. – Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that temperatures across the northeastern United States will increase much faster than the global average, so that the 2-degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate change will be reached about 20 years earlier for this part of the U.S. compared to the world as a whole.

NECSC postdoctoral researcher Ambarish Karmalkar and geosciences professor Raymond Bradley’s study explores how climate across the U.S. will be affected by the recent Paris agreement to limit global average temperatures to no more than 1.5 degrees C, or 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Details appear in the current issue of PLOS ONE, released today.

Bradley says, “With the signing of the Paris Agreement to try and limit greenhouse gas emissions, many people have been lulled into a false sense of security, thinking that the 2-degrees C target is somehow a ‘safe’ limit for climate change. But the 2 C number is a global average, and many regions will warm more, and warm more rapidly, than the earth as a whole. Our study shows that the northeast United States is one of those regions where warming will proceed very rapidly, so that if and when the global target is reached, we will already be experiencing much higher temperatures, with all of the related ecological, hydrological and agricultural consequences.”

Read more at University of Massachusetts Amherst

Measuring the ‘True Social Cost’ of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

From: The University of Oxford
Published: January 13, 2017

The US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has proposed a new framework for US agencies to use to estimate the ‘social cost of carbon dioxide’ emissions. Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science at the Environmental Change Institute, helped compile the report which will strengthen the scientific basis and provide greater transparency for US climate policy.

The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an estimate, in dollars, of the net damages incurred by society from the emission of a single additional tonne of carbon dioxide in a given year. The dollar figure also represents the value of damages avoided by cutting emission of one tonne. The SC-CO2 is intended to be a comprehensive estimate of the net damages from carbon emissions —that is, the net costs and benefits associated with the effects of climate change such as changes in agricultural productivity, risks to human health, and damage from events like floods. The US government has to estimate the costs and benefits of proposed regulations, for example, in standards for emissions from vehicles or fossil-fuel powered plants, or energy efficiency standards for appliances.

This framework can be used to translate reductions of carbon dioxide emissions into monetary benefits. The report recommends that four key steps of social cost of carbon dioxide estimation: the projection of future socioeconomics and emissions, the translation of emissions into climate change, the translation of climate change into damages to human welfare, and the discounting of damages over time.

An organisation called the federal Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology in 2010 to estimate the social cost of carbon. This followed a court ruling creating an obligation that still continues, so if the government wants to propose regulations that decrease or increase carbon dioxide emissions, it is legally required to estimate the economic consequences. This latest report updates the methods of calculating the monetary costs.

Read more at The University of Oxford